{"id":54799,"date":"2025-04-16T13:16:51","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T13:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/?p=54799"},"modified":"2025-04-19T04:56:37","modified_gmt":"2025-04-19T04:56:37","slug":"navigating-the-rollercoaster-of-market-volatility-caused-by-trumps-trade-policies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/builder\/navigating-the-rollercoaster-of-market-volatility-caused-by-trumps-trade-policies\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating the rollercoaster of market volatility caused by Trump’s trade policies"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post<\/a> was originally published on this site<\/a><\/p>

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It\u2019s been a rough few weeks for investors across the globe with volatility caused by higher-than-expected tariffs announced by United States President Donald Trump on April 2, which he called Liberation Day, before walking them backwards somewhat.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Markets have seesawed, losing serious ground before recovering and then <\/span>being<\/span> highly volatile. <\/span>And<\/span> this is going to be the picture for <\/span>the while, market commentators and analysts say<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Old Mutual Wealth chief investment strategist, Izak Odendaal, compared Trump\u2019s trade war to the adverse impact of heavy rain, with the full effect of water damage only being felt later <\/span>in time<\/span>. He wrote that the world\u2019s financial markets took the first blow, yet \u201call that water still needs to go somewhere, and swollen rivers can wreak havoc days away from where the deluge was\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

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It is possible that markets could shift up or down around 10% over the next few weeks, said Peter Armitage, Anchor Capital\u2019s CEO & co-chief investment officer. \u201cWe typically get a 10% move-in market most years. It\u2019s <\/span>very difficult<\/span> to forecast what happens next; there does appear to be some more sanity coming into the system,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span>The wild market swings have left investors dazed and confused, said Odendaal.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span>Armitage said <\/span>that there<\/span> are massive changes in markets daily after Trump \u201cshocked and surprised everybody\u201d. \u201cWe live in some interesting times.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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Chris Eddie, lead fund manager for 10X’s multi-asset fund range, noted that everyone is exhausted \u201cby the extent to which the tariff goalposts are being changed\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Over the period between April 3 and April 4, the S&P 500 collectively lost 10.5% of its value, with US markets having their worst losses since the pandemic. The S&P 500 has moved down 9% <\/span>so far<\/span> this year, yet is up some 7% on the same time in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

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10X chief investment officer, Anton Eser, said that, for South African investors, United States equities are now a huge portion of any retirement fund. \u201cMost importantly, and as we’ve seen at the moment, what’s going on has significant repercussions for all financial markets, including our local market,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Anchor Capital\u2019s research showed that year-to-date, South African equities had gained about 2.1%. Emerging markets were down 2.1% in the same period, Anchor\u2019s research showed. Over a year, South African shares were up 17.3% compared to 2.8% for the overall emerging market class, its data indicated.<\/span><\/p>\n

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It is, however, said <\/span>Armitage<\/span> early days, and it will take weeks if not months for the market to \u201cbottom out\u201d given that Trump has caused a \u201cgrowth scare\u201d. He also noted that markets move over time, and the best <\/span>period to invest<\/span> would be after a decline. \u201cSome shares are 30% down.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cEconomic activity, the decisions of companies and consumers, sit downstream of Trump\u2019s tariff announcements, and it will take time to see how much destruction the floodwaters cause,\u201d said Odendaal.<\/span><\/p>\n

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In his note, Odendaal <\/span>put forward<\/span> two potential decisions investors may make <\/span>on the back of<\/span> the market swings: Sell equities and bonds while hiding in cash<\/span>, <\/span>or hang on. Selling, he said, could prove to have been the right option in hindsight. However, the <\/span>contrary<\/span> situation is if tariffs are removed tomorrow, in which case \u201cmarkets will rocket higher<\/span>\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Armitage said Anchor Capital was \u201cnot panicking. We haven\u2019t felt compelled to do a wholesale sale of shares. The actual share moves in aggregate are not as dramatic as it feels, <\/span>and that\u2019s<\/span> because the day-to-day moves are so big. The market is just trying to find its space\u2026 This will be an event that too has passed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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Whether tariffs are removed \u201cprobably depends on psychology more than economics,\u201d said Odendaal. \u201cThe dilemma is that no one knows, perhaps not even Trump himself. This does not appear to be a good time for making big tactical bets on a very uncertain future outcome,\u201d he noted.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Company valuations in the US are likely to come down, said Armitage, as US inflation will increase because of the higher prices due to increased expenses <\/span>of imports<\/span>.<\/span> \u201cSelling and <\/span>crystalising<\/span> losses is the wrong thing to do,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Armitage also pointed out that the United States market had started the year expensively, which meant there was not much room for error.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Eddie said that<\/span> <\/span>in the United States, the entrance of the ChatGPT alternative in January of China\u2019s DeepSeek really marked the top of the market for the so-called Magnificent Seven.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Magnificent Seven:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n