{"id":265390,"date":"2025-11-12T14:20:41","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T15:20:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/?p=265390"},"modified":"2025-11-12T17:07:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T17:07:09","slug":"treasury-trims-2025-growth-outlook-pins-hopes-on-reforms-to-lift-long-term-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/builder\/treasury-trims-2025-growth-outlook-pins-hopes-on-reforms-to-lift-long-term-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasury trims 2025 growth outlook, pins hopes on reforms to lift long-term momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post<\/a> was originally published on this site<\/a><\/p>

<\/p>\n

The National Treasury has revised South Africa\u2019s economic growth forecast for 2025 downward, citing weaker global and domestic conditions, but remains optimistic that ongoing structural reforms in energy and logistics will help the economy gain traction in the coming years.<\/p>\n

In its the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) tabled on Wednesday, Treasury said it now expects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.2% in 2025, down from 1.4% projected in February.<\/p>\n

The revision follows weaker-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, subdued consumer and business confidence, and a fragile global recovery.<\/p>\n

Despite the downgrade, the 2025 forecast still marks a recovery from the 0.5% growth recorded in 2024, with Treasury projecting an improvement to 1.8% on average between 2026 and 2028 as reform momentum builds and infrastructure investment strengthens.<\/p>\n

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said South Africa\u2019s growth prospects are being shaped by both domestic challenges and external pressures, including slowing global trade and geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n

\u201cDomestically, we forecast real GDP growth of 1.2% for 2025, more than double the economic growth in 2024. The growth outlook strengthens moderately over the medium term,\u201d Godongwana said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe structural reforms we have embarked on, particularly in energy and logistics, will be key to lifting our rate of growth closer to levels demanded by our developmental needs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Godongwana said Treasury\u2019s approach to faster, more sustainable growth continues to rest on four key pillars: macroeconomic stability, structural reform, building state capability, and supporting growth-enhancing infrastructure.<\/p>\n

He added that while global growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.2% in 2025, trade tensions, rising protectionism, and lingering supply chain disruptions continue to pose risks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe shocks of the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States have not materialised as severely as expected,\u201d he said. \u201cBut their delayed effects, coupled with rising protectionism, pose future risks to global productivity and price stability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Godongwana noted that while global equity markets have surged on the back of AI-related stocks and monetary easing, \u201cthis rally carries the risk of sudden reversals.\u201d<\/p>\n

He stressed the importance of deepening regional trade and cooperation, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and South Africa\u2019s G20 presidency, to strengthen Africa\u2019s growth and resilience.<\/p>\n

Npnetheless, economists welcomed Treasury\u2019s cautious yet reform-driven outlook.<\/p>\n

North West University’s Business School economist, Prof Raymond Parsons, said the MTBPS acknowledged that \u201call roads ultimately lead through higher, job-rich growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Parsons warned that projected growth of 1.8% between 2026 and 2028 remains insufficient to tackle South Africa\u2019s deep structural and socio-economic challenges.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe overarching message of the MTBPS is that accelerated structural reforms remain the most effective pathway to much higher, job-rich growth,\u201d Parsons said.<\/p>\n

\u201cImplementation will be key \u2014 ensuring that commitments under Operation Vulindlela and other processes translate into tangible improvements in confidence, investment, and service delivery.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe MTBPS represents a visible turning point in advancing thepriorities of a stable, growing, competitive, and inclusive economy. Policy continues to gradually move in the right direction to build resilience, create fiscal buffers, and stabilize public indebtedness amid adverse global headwinds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Parsons said that while fiscal sustainability is gradually improving, questions remain over whether stronger revenue performance will be enough to offset potential tax increases of around R20 billion signalled for the February 2026 Budget.<\/p>\n

Frederick Mitchell, chief economist at Aluma Capital, said Godongwana\u2019s reaffirmation of Operation Vulindlela\u2019s second phase was a crucial step.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese reforms are critical for accelerating inclusive growth and tackling infrastructure bottlenecks, be it water, rail, or ports,\u201d Mitchell said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPort capacity remains a particular concern, causing international trade backlogs that hinder competitiveness. Without resolving these issues, growth will remain constrained.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mitchell added that while short-term forecasts have been trimmed, the medium-term nominal growth projection of around 8% reflects a degree of optimism that structural reform, investment partnerships, and policy stability could unlock greater economic potential.<\/p>\n

BUSINESS REPORT<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The National Treasury has revised South Africa\u2019s economic growth forecast for 2025 downward, citing weaker global and domestic conditions, but remains optimistic that ongoing structural reforms in energy and logistics will help the economy gain traction in the coming years.In its the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) tabled on Wednesday, Treasury said it now expects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.2% in 2025, down from 1.4% projected in February.The revision follows weaker-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, subdued consumer and business confidence, and a fragile global recovery.Despite the downgrade, the 2025 forecast still marks a recovery from the 0.5% growth recorded in 2024, with Treasury projecting an improvement to 1.8% on average between 2026 and 2028 as reform momentum builds and infrastructure investment strengthens.Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said South Africa\u2019s growth prospects are being shaped by both domestic challenges and external pressures, including slowing global trade and geopolitical tensions.\u201cDomestically, we forecast real GDP growth of 1.2% for 2025, more than double the economic growth in 2024. The growth outlook strengthens moderately over the medium term,\u201d Godongwana said.\u201cThe structural reforms we have embarked on, particularly in energy and logistics, will be key to lifting our rate of growth closer to levels demanded by our developmental needs.\u201dGodongwana said Treasury\u2019s approach to faster, more sustainable growth continues to rest on four key pillars: macroeconomic stability, structural reform, building state capability, and supporting growth-enhancing infrastructure.He added that while global growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.2% in 2025, trade tensions, rising protectionism, and lingering supply chain disruptions continue to pose risks.\u201cThe shocks of the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States have not materialised as severely as expected,\u201d he said. \u201cBut their delayed effects, coupled with rising protectionism, pose future risks to global productivity and price stability.\u201dGodongwana noted that while global equity markets have surged on the back of AI-related stocks and monetary easing, \u201cthis rally carries the risk of sudden reversals.\u201dHe stressed the importance of deepening regional trade and cooperation, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and South Africa\u2019s G20 presidency, to strengthen Africa\u2019s growth and resilience.Npnetheless, economists welcomed Treasury\u2019s cautious yet reform-driven outlook.North West University’s Business School economist, Prof Raymond Parsons, said the MTBPS acknowledged that \u201call roads ultimately lead through higher, job-rich growth.\u201dHowever, Parsons warned that projected growth of 1.8% between 2026 and 2028 remains insufficient to tackle South Africa\u2019s deep structural and socio-economic challenges.\u201cThe overarching message of the MTBPS is that accelerated structural reforms remain the most effective pathway to much higher, job-rich growth,\u201d Parsons said.\u201cImplementation will be key \u2014 ensuring that commitments under Operation Vulindlela and other processes translate into tangible improvements in confidence, investment, and service delivery.\u201cThe MTBPS represents a visible turning point in advancing thepriorities of a stable, growing, competitive, and inclusive economy. Policy continues to gradually move in the right direction to build resilience, create fiscal buffers, and stabilize public indebtedness amid adverse global headwinds.\u201dParsons said that while fiscal sustainability is gradually improving, questions remain over whether stronger revenue performance will be enough to offset potential tax increases of around R20 billion signalled for the February 2026 Budget.Frederick Mitchell, chief economist at Aluma Capital, said Godongwana\u2019s reaffirmation of Operation Vulindlela\u2019s second phase was a crucial step.\u201cThese reforms are critical for accelerating inclusive growth and tackling infrastructure bottlenecks, be it water, rail, or ports,\u201d Mitchell said.\u201cPort capacity remains a particular concern, causing international trade backlogs that hinder competitiveness. Without resolving these issues, growth will remain constrained.\u201dMitchell added that while short-term forecasts have been trimmed, the medium-term nominal growth projection of around 8% reflects a degree of optimism that structural reform, investment partnerships, and policy stability could unlock greater economic potential.BUSINESS REPORT<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":265300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-265390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-builder"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=265390"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265390\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":265391,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265390\/revisions\/265391"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/265300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=265390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=265390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=265390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}