{"id":265303,"date":"2025-11-11T13:17:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T14:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/?p=265303"},"modified":"2025-11-12T05:05:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T05:05:59","slug":"achieving-energy-security-and-net-zero-by-2050-insights-from-a-comprehensive-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.premium-partners.net\/fr\/builder\/achieving-energy-security-and-net-zero-by-2050-insights-from-a-comprehensive-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Achieving energy security and net zero by 2050: Insights from a comprehensive study"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post<\/a> was originally published on this site<\/a><\/p>

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On Wednesday, November 5, 2025, a significant study titled \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s Energy Sector Investment <\/span>Requirements to Achieve Energy Security and Net Zero Goals by 2050\u201d was released by the <\/span>Development Bank of Southern Africa, the National Planning Commission, the Presidential Climate <\/span>Commission, and National Treasury\u2019s Southern Africa \u2013 Towards Inclusive Economic Development <\/span>programme. <\/span><\/p>\n

Taken together, the work provides a quantified pathway to a secure, least-cost electricity <\/span>system that can be financed at scale if policy aligns with timely project execution.<\/span><\/p>\n

The modelling sets out three pathways to 2050 and costs them end to end, including annual capital <\/span>requirements, operating costs, and grid expansion. It is not a generation-only view. The authors pair the <\/span>power-system results with economy-wide assessments using a computable general equilibrium model <\/span>and a micro-study of Mpumalanga, where the transition pressures are most acute due to coal <\/span>dependence.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the preferred \u201cGreen Industrialisation\u201d pathway, the 2030 mix remains transitional. Coal provides about <\/span>40 percent of energy (roughly 104 TWh), solar about 30 percent (around 77 TWh), wind about 23 percent <\/span>(about 59 TWh), nuclear about 6 percent (around 15 TWh), hydro about 5 percent (around 14 TWh), and <\/span>gas about 5 percent (about 12 TWh). By 2040 coal falls to about 10 percent, while solar approaches half <\/span>the mix and wind rises to about 40 percent, supported by utility-scale batteries to manage variability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Through 2050 the system deepens electrification with high variable renewable energy and storage, and <\/span>retains gas mainly for flexibility rather than baseload. On combined capital and operating costs, this <\/span>pathway is the most economical and environmentally credible.<\/span><\/p>\n

The investment profile is clear. Across 2025 to 2050, discounted system investment in generation and <\/span>grid ranges from roughly R3.6 trillion in the Green Industrialisation case to about R4.2 trillion in a fossil-<\/span>heavier baseline. Grid requirements are largest in the preferred pathway due to faster renewable and <\/span>storage build-out. Average annual capital expenditure in 2025 to 2030 is about R140 billion, near 1.9 <\/span>percent of GDP, then moderates to about R60 billion per year from 2031 to 2050 as the fleet matures.<\/span><\/p>\n

Operating costs trend down as variable costs fall with renewables. In 2025 to 2030, opex averages about <\/span>R125 billion per year, near 1.7 percent of GDP, and declines thereafter. Taken together, capex and opex <\/span>in 2025 to 2030 sum to about R265 billion per year.<\/span><\/p>\n

A market-sounding of local financiers tested whether the capital can be raised domestically. Using a <\/span>working quantum of R100 billion per year in 2024 rand, participants indicated no near-term funding gap <\/span>through about 2027. They cautioned that a gap is likely from 2028 onward without policy and pricing <\/span>adjustments. Several noted that current tariff levels and debt returns are already constraining parts of the <\/span>renewable pipeline. The message is not a lack of capital, it is the need for predictable pricing, <\/span>procurement design that reflects system services, and project readiness that moves swiftly from <\/span>determination to financial close.<\/span><\/p>\n

The macro- and micro-studies reinforce the system view. The computable general equilibrium work shows <\/span>a long-run double dividend compared with a fossil-heavier baseline: stronger GDP growth and improved <\/span>environmental outcomes, provided mitigation is targeted to provincial impacts. In Mpumalanga, only <\/span>about 10 percent of the coal workforce is affected before 2030, which creates a practical window to <\/span>implement skills support, income protection, and placement into grid works, environmental rehabilitation, <\/span>and renewable project delivery. Sequencing matters. Support must peak in the 2030s when retirements <\/span>accelerate, and investment in new industries must land ahead of closures rather than after.<\/span><\/p>\n

Three conclusions stand out:<\/span><\/p>\n